基于N-K模型的城市轨道交通运营风险耦合研究*
许慧1岳靖川1杜茂康1焦柳丹2
Analysis of Urban Rail Transit Coupling Operation Risks Based on N-K Model
XU HuiYUE JingchuanDU MaokangJIAO Liudan
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作者信息:1.重庆邮电大学经济管理学院，400065，重庆；
2.重庆交通大学经济与管理学院，400074，重庆
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Affiliation:School of Economics and Management, Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications, 400065, Chongqing, China
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关键词:
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Key words:
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DOI:10.16037/j.1007-869x.2020.10.026
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中图分类号/CLCN:F530.7
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栏目/Col:研究报告
摘要:
对国内外114起重大地铁运营事故案例进行详细研究，总结出城市轨道交通运营的主要风险因素包括人为、设备、自然和管理4大类，并基于N-K模型计算出单因素、双因素以及多因素耦合方式下风险发生的概率及耦合值，以期得到各个风险因素及其耦合方式对城市轨道交通线路运营的影响程度。
Abstracts:
Through detailed studies on 114 serious urban rail transit operation accidents both in China and abroad, 4 main risk factors in rail transit are summarized as human factors, equipment factors, nature factors, and management factors. Based on the N-K model，the risk probability and coupling value of one-factor coupling, two-factor coupling, and multi-factor coupling are calculated, aiming to obtain the influencing degrees of various risk factors and the coupling modes on the operation of urban rail transit system.
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