基于全寿命周期成本的城市轨道交通列车延期服役经济性研究
周炯1张枝森1王金阳1龚晓波2张妍3万铁军3
Economic Analysis of Urban Rail Transit Train Service Life Extension Based on Whole Life-cycle Cost
ZHOU Jiong1ZHANG Zhisen1WANG Jinyang1GONG Xiaobo2ZHANG Yan3WAN Tiejun3
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作者信息:1.上海地铁维护保障有限公司， 200237， 上海；
2.中车青岛四方车辆研究所有限公司， 266031， 青岛；
3.中车长春轨道客车股份有限公司， 130062， 长春
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Affiliation:1.Shanghai Metro Maintenance Support Co., Ltd., 200237, Shanghai, China;
2.CRRC Qingdao Sifang Rolling Stock Research Institute Co., Ltd., 266031, Qingdao, China;
3.CRRC Changchun Railway Vehicle Co., Ltd., 130062, Changchun, China
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关键词:
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Key words:
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DOI:10.16037/j.1007-869x.20241123
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中图分类号/CLCN:F530.7
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栏目/Col:车辆制造与列车控制
摘要:
［目的］在对城市轨道交通列车延期服役的评估中，经济性计算为决策重要依据，对于判断是否进行延期服役及实施改造具有关键意义。因此，有必要基于全寿命周期成本研究城市轨道交通列车延期服役经济性。［方法］基于城市轨道交通列车全寿命周期成本计算，提出了一种城市轨道交通列车延期服役经济性评估方法。该方法将城市轨道交通列车生命周期划分为采购、运营、维修、回收处置四个阶段，分别计算每个阶段的成本，纳入通胀因素和中期改造等特殊开销项，可对延期服役场景下利率、通胀、改造成本等因素进行针对性评估。对典型案例进行实证分析和参数研究，对列车正常服役至30年退役和延期服役至45年退役两种场景进行了多维度计算。［结果及结论］在不考虑利率、通胀和回收残值等因素的前提下，改造成本和采购成本是影响车辆延期服役是否经济的决定性因素，采购成本越高、改造成本越低，延期服役的经济性越好。利率因素对列车全寿命周期成本影响较大，但对列车延期改造经济性影响较小。通胀因素对于列车延期改造经济性的影响较大，随着通胀率升高，延期服役带来的成本优势迅速下降，当通胀率达到1.5%时，通过改造让列车延期服役已无经济性优势。
Abstracts:
［Objective］ In evaluating the service life extension of urban rail transit trains, economic calculation serves as a key basis for decision-making and plays a critical role in determining whether to carry out life extension and associated upgrade. Therefore, it is essential to study the economic viability in urban rail transit train life extension based on whole life-cycle cost. ［Method］ Through calculating the whole life-cycle cost for urban rail transit trains, an economic evaluation method for train service life extension is proposed. Urban rail transit train life cycle is divided into four stages: procurement, operation, maintenance, and recycling/disposal. The costs for each stage are calculated separately, incorporating inflation factors and special expenses such as mid-term overhauls, which enables targeted evaluation for factors like interest rate, inflation, and refurbishment costs under service life extension scenarios. An empirical analysis and parameter study are conducted using a typical case，and multi-dimensional calculation is carried out for two scenarios: retirement at the standard 30-year service life and at the extended 45-year service life. ［Result & Conclusion］ When excluding the factors such as interest rates, inflation, and residual value at disposal, upgrade and procurement costs are the decisive factors influencing the economic feasibility of service life extension. The higher the procurement cost and the lower the cost, the greater the economic advantage of extending service life. Though interest rate factors significantly affect the overall life-cycle cost of the train, their impact on the economic viability of train delayed upgrade is relatively minor. Inflation factors have a substantial effect on the economics of train life extension; as the inflation rate increases, the cost advantage of life extension diminishes rapidly. When the inflation rate reaches 1.5%, extending train service through upgrade will eliminate any economic advantages.
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