基于BN-PERT进度风险分析模型的地铁项目进度风险分析
李潇1胡志根1杨光2宋子达1
Schedule Risk Analysis Model of Subway Project Based on Fuzzy Probability BN-PERT
LI XiaoHU ZhigenYANG GuangSONG Zida
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作者信息:1.武汉大学水利水电学院，430072，武汉；
2.中国水利水电第八工程局有限公司，410004，长沙
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Affiliation:School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, Wuhan University, 430072, Wuhan, China
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关键词:
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Key words:
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DOI:10.16037/j.1007-869x.2020.06.003
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中图分类号/CLCN:TU71：U231
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栏目/Col:研究报告
摘要:
考虑城市地铁项目建设过程中的风险因素及其相关性和非主导线路对工期的影响，在计划评审技术（PERT）的基础上，建立了一种基于贝叶斯网络（BN）和修正PERT的BN-PERT进度风险分析模型。该模型以进度计划和风险贝叶斯网络为基础，引入乐观系数反映决策者偏好，利用语言变量描述专家等级判断，采用模糊数将语言变量转化为概率值，使用BN的概率推理功能和修正的PERT分析工程进度的期望工期和风险率。通过对某地铁工程的实例分析表明，BN-PERT模型的计算结果较好地反映了工程风险的客观属性及其特征。
Abstracts:
Considering the influence of risk factors, correlation and non-dominant lines on the duration, a BN-PERT project schedule risk analysis model based on Bayesian network (BN) and modified project evaluation and review technique (PERT) is established. On the basis of schedule development and risk BN, the optimistic coefficient is introduced into the model to reflect the preferences of decision makers; then, the linguistic variables are used to describe the grade judgment of experts, the fuzzy numbers are used to convert the linguistic variables into probability values, and the probability reasoning function of BN and the modified PERT are used to analyze the expected duration and the completion risk rate. The analysis of engineering examples shows that the calculation results of the BN-PERT model reflect better the objective properties and characteristics of engineering risks.
引文 / Ref:
李潇，胡志根，杨光，等.基于BN-PERT进度风险分析模型的地铁项目进度风险分析[J].城市轨道交通研究，2020，23（6）：10.
LI Xiao，HU Zhigen，YANG Guang，et al.Schedule Risk Analysis Model of Subway Project Based on Fuzzy Probability BN-PERT[J].Urban mass transit，2020，23（6）：10.
LI Xiao，HU Zhigen，YANG Guang，et al.Schedule Risk Analysis Model of Subway Project Based on Fuzzy Probability BN-PERT[J].Urban mass transit，2020，23（6）：10.
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