郑州地铁钢轨扣件使用寿命评估模型组研究
张兴凯1白磊2张家涛1李现鹏1许大伟1敬航天1丁明2
Service Lifespan Estimation Model Set for Rail Fastener in Zhengzhou Metro
ZHANG XingkaiBAI LeiZHANG JiataoLI XianpengXU DaweiJING HangtianDING Ming
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作者信息:1.1.郑州地铁集团有限公司运营分公司，450046，郑州；
2.2.北京九州一轨环境科技股份有限公司智慧运维中心，100070，北京
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Affiliation:Operating Branch of Zhengzhou Metro Group Co., Ltd., 450046, Zhengzhou, China
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关键词:
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Key words:
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DOI:10.16037/j.1007-869x.2023.01.019
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中图分类号/CLCN:U213.5+3
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栏目/Col:研究报告
摘要:
准确评估钢轨扣件使用寿命，对轨道维修资源合理利用以及运维生产提质增效具有重要意义。针对郑州地铁钢轨扣件特点，依据影响钢轨扣件使用寿命的异质性因素，将线路轨道划分为不同类型的区段。针对不同类型的轨道区段，构建不同的钢轨扣件使用寿命评估模型，形成钢轨扣件使用寿命评估模型组。该模型组采用双参数威布尔分布函数，描述钢轨扣件状态的劣化规律。选取郑州地铁1号线钢轨扣件近5年的历史病害数据，构建极大似然函数，确定模型组的待估参数，验证所提模型组的有效性。计算结果表明，评估出的钢轨扣件使用寿命对现场管理人员科学组织轨道运维生产具有重要价值。
Abstracts:
Accurately estimating service lifespan for rail fasteners is of great significance to the efficient use of track maintenance resources and the improvement of operation and maintenance quality and efficiency. Targeting the characteristics of rail fastener in Zhengzhou Metro, based on the heterogeneity factors affecting fastener service lifespan, the rail line is divided into different types of track sections. According to the division, different fastener service lifespan estimation models are proposed and the model set for fastener lifespan estimation is formed. The model set uses a dual parameter Weibull distribution function to describe the deterioration law of fastener condition. Historical disease data of the last 5 years of Zhengzhou Metro Line 1 fastener are selected, and the maximum likelihood function is built. The estimated parameters of the model set are determined, and the proposed model set is verified. Calculation results show that the estimated rail fastener service lifespan is of great value for the site administrators to organize track operation and maintenance activities scientifically.
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