基于乘客OD间路径旅行时间的城市轨道交通客流分布计算模型的适用性研究
朱炜
Applicability of Passenger Flow Distribution Calculation Model in Urban Rail Transit Based on Passenger OD Travel Time
ZHU Wei
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作者信息:同济大学交通运输工程学院， 201804， 上海
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Affiliation:College of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, 201804, Shanghai, China
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关键词:
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Key words:
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DOI:10.16037/j.1007-869x.2024.03.002
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中图分类号/CLCN:U293.1+3
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栏目/Col:学术专论
摘要:
［目的］针对目前城市轨道交通（以下简称“城轨”）线网客流分布计算模型的客流计算结果与实际客流存在偏差的现象，需基于OD间路径的实际旅行时间，对基于多路径概率分配的客流分布计算模型的适用性展开研究。［方法］基于乘客OD间路径的实际旅行时间，分析揭示了现有城轨客流分布计算模型存在的主要问题；融合AFC（自动售检票）系统和ATS（列车自动监控）系统两类数据，构建并标定了基于乘客OD间路径旅行时间的城轨客流分布计算模型；对目前国内城轨系统广泛采用的基于多路径概率分配的城轨客流分布计算模型的适用性进行了分析与评价。［结果及结论］现有城轨客流分布计算模型在路径选择集和路径选择比例上存在主要问题。通过基于多路径概率分配的城轨客流分布计算模型获取的路径分配比例，得到的旅行时间分布模拟结果均为单峰，无法重现从AFC票卡提取的实际旅行时间分布的多峰情况。当城轨线网较为简单时，基于多路径概率分配的城轨客流分布计算模型基本适用；当线网规模不断增加，线网结构进一步复杂，列车运行方式的多样性、乘客出行行为的差异性等不断加大的条件下，该模型对于路径阻抗差异小的OD可能适用，而对于路径阻抗差异大的OD不适用。
Abstracts:
［Objective］ Targeting the phenomenon of deviation between the passenger flow calculation results by current network passenger flow distribution calculation model in urban rail transit and the actual data, the applicability of passenger flow distribution calculation model based on multi-path probability distribution needs to be studied based on the actual OD (origin and destination) travel time. ［Method］ Based on the actual OD travel time, the main problems in the existing passenger flow distribution calculation model in urban rail transit are analyzed and revealed. The data of AFC (auto fare collection) and ATS (automatic train supervision) are integrated to build and calibrate the calculation model of urban rail passenger flow distribution based on OD travel time. The applicability of calculation model based on multi-path probability distribution, which is widely used in China′s urban rail transit at present, is analyzed and evaluated. ［Result & Conclusion］ The main problems of the present calculation model of passenger flow distribution in urban rail transit lie in route selection set and route selection proportion. The simulation result of travel time distribution through the route allocation ratio is unimodal, which is obtained by using a computer model of passenger flow distribution based on multi-path probability distribution, and cannot re-produce the multi-modal situation of actual travel time distribution extracted from AFC ticket card. When the urban rail transit network is relatively simple, the calculation model of passenger flow distribution in urban rail transit based on multi-path probability distribution is basically applicable. When the scale of the network is increasing and the structure of the network is further complicated, the diversity of train operation mode and the difference of passenger travel behaviors are intensifying, the model may be applicable to OD with small path impedance difference, but not to OD with large path impedance difference.
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