基于置信水平的钢轨焊接接头设备状态评定方法
马国祥
Condition Assessment Method of Rail Welded Joint Equipment Based on Confidence Level
MA Guoxiang
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作者信息:浙江省轨道交通运营管理集团有限公司， 310005， 杭州
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Affiliation:Zhejiang Rail Transit Operation Management Group Co., Ltd., 310005, Hangzhou, China
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关键词:
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Key words:
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DOI:10.16037/j.1007-869x.2024.04.037
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中图分类号/CLCN:U213.9+2
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栏目/Col:研究报告
摘要:
［目的］为解决我国无缝线路钢轨设备状态评定体系不完善的问题，需要建立基于置信水平的钢轨焊接接头设备状态评定方法。［方法］阐述了目前我国规定的高速铁路钢轨平直度允许偏差、焊接接头平直度允许偏差。以我国某条已开通运营13年的高速铁路为案例，对该线钢轨焊接接头平直度数据进行分析，认为钢轨接头平直度检测数据总体服从正态分布。根据正态分布及置信区间原理，对均值和标准差评定法、置信水平评定法进行对比，提出了基于置信水平的钢轨焊接接头设备状态评定方法，得到高速铁路钢轨设备状态的评定标准。［结果及结论］该方法能够客观、直观地反映出钢轨焊接接头的设备状态，可以准确地掌握钢轨设备状态。该方法可为分析钢轨设备变化规律，以及制定大中修的标准、计划及方案等提供很好的理论依据。
Abstracts:
［Objective］ To address the incomplete assessment system for seamless rail equipment conditions in China, it is necessary to establish an equipment condition assessment method for rail welded joints. ［Method］ The allowable deviations for the flatness of high-speed rail and welded joints specified by current Chinese regulations are elucidated. Taking a high-speed railway line for 13 years running in China as study case, the flatness data of the line rail welded joints is analyzed, and it is observed that the rail joint flatness detection data generally conforms to normal distribution. Based on the principles of normal distribution and confidence intervals, the mean value/standard deviation assessment and confidence level assessment two methods are compared. The rail welded joint equipment condition assessment method based on confidence level is proposed, along with the corresponding assessment criteria for high-speed railway rail equipment. ［Result & Conclusion］ This method can objectively and intuitively reflect rail welded joint equipment conditions, allowing accurate understanding of rail equipment conditions. The method can serve as a good theoretical basis for analyzing the law of changes in rail equipment, as well as formulating standards, plans, and strategies for major and medium maintenance.
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