基于故障树和蒙特卡罗方法的地铁车门可靠性分析
丁思畅1严俊2
Reliability Analysis of Metro Doors Based on Fault Tree and Monte Carlo Methods
DING Sichang1YAN Jun2
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作者信息:1.上海海事大学商船学院，201306，上海
2.上海地铁维护保障有限公司，200070，上海
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Affiliation:1.Merchant shipping college, Shanghai maritime university, 201306, Shanghai, China
2.Shanghai Metro Maintenance Support Co., Ltd., 200070, Shanghai, China
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关键词:
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Key words:
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DOI:10.16037/j.1007-869x.2024.10.032
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中图分类号/CLCN:U270.38+6∶TP3
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栏目/Col:研究报告
摘要:
［目的］车门系统是车辆运行过程中使用频率最高的关键系统，故有必要对其可靠性和故障特性进行研究，以保障城市轨道交通安全运行。［方法］基于上海轨道交通2021年2月至2022年2月间各线路车门的故障状况的数据，在给定的状态转移规则下，建立了基于FTA（故障树分析）的门系统仿真模型。在此模型的基础上，采用蒙特卡罗方法对未知故障模式进行可靠性模拟：进行静态仿真，利用线性全等法产生伪随机数来代替真实随机数，计算顶事件的失败率和基本事件的重要度；进行动态仿真，通过多次分布拟合，得到其可靠性分布和各部分寿命的采样值；由仿真试验绘制出系统的密度分布曲线和可靠性曲线。［结果及结论］数值结果表明，因为服从指数分布和韦布尔分布的基本事件在某些时间区间内失效概率很高，故系统在运行到该时间区间时很可能发生故障。
Abstracts:
［Objective］ Door system is the most frequently used critical system during vehicle operation, so it is necessary to study its reliability and failure characteristics to ensure the safe operation of urban rail transit. ［Method］ Based on the data of door system failure conditions across various Shanghai Rail Transit lines from February 2021 to February 2022, a simulation model based on FTA (fault tree analysis) is established under given state transition rules. Based on this model, the Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the reliability of unknown failure modes: by performing static simulation, the pseudo-random numbers are generated using the linear congruence method to replace real random numbers, and the failure rate of top events and the importance of basic events are calculated; by performing dynamic simulation, the reliability distribution and lifetime sampling values of each component are obtained through multiple distribution fittings; by simulation experiments, the density distribution curves and reliability curves of the system are plotted. ［Result & Conclusion］ Numerical results show that，because the failure probability of basic events that obey exponential distribution and Weibull distribution within certain time intervals is very high, thus the system is very likely to fail when it runs into this time interval.
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