站城人一体化发展下铁路枢纽功能与客流需求分析
吴琼
Analysis of Railway Hub Function and Passenger Flow Demand under the Integrated Station-City-People Development
WU Qiong
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作者信息:中铁第一勘察设计院集团有限公司，710043，西安
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Affiliation:China Railway First Survey and Design Institute Group Co., Ltd., 710043, Xi’an, China
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关键词:
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Key words:
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DOI:10.16037/j.1007-869x.2025.01.028
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中图分类号/CLCN:U293.1+3
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栏目/Col:研究报告
摘要:
［目的］在站城人一体化发展下，铁路客运枢纽在承担交通功能与城市开发功能的基础上，升级为提供情感联系与寄托的新型城市空间，枢纽的服务属性和承载的客流群体发生较大变化，需立足需求端的变化研究站城人一体化发展下铁路客运枢纽的功能特征和客流需求。［方法］基于站城人一体化发展的阶段性特征及其对铁路枢纽承担客流的影响，分析了新型铁路客运枢纽的功能变化及其承担的客流构成，具体包括基于交通服务的趋势客流、城市开发诱增的衍生客流、供给动态调整的韧性客流等几部分，在传统交通预测四阶段法的基础上提出每种情景客流需求的预测思路及方法，并以西安东站为例进行验证分析。［结果及结论］枢纽客流呈现出交通功能客流前期为主、城市功能客流逐步增长、韧性客流短期趋稳的发展态势。综合三部分客流分析，初步预测西安东枢纽远期高峰小时的客流总量约为3.0万～3.2万人次/h。通过细化枢纽各部分客流需求的预测方法，可为新型枢纽的功能配置、设施布局、客运组织等提供科学可靠的依据。
Abstracts:
［Objective］ Under the integrated station-city-people development, the railway passenger transport hub is upgraded to a new type of urban space that provides emotional connection and sustenance while undertaking transportation and urban development functions. The service attributes and the passenger flow groups of the hubs have undergone significant changes. Therefore, it is necessary to study the functional characteristics and the passenger flow demands of the hubs under the integrated station-city-people development based on changes in the demand side. ［Method］ Based on the characteristics of the integrated station-city-people development in each stage and its influence on passenger flow of the hubs, the functional changes and the passenger flow composition of the new railway passenger hubs are analyzed, specifically including several parts such as the trend passenger flow based on transportation services, the derivative passenger flow induced by urban development, and the resilient passenger flow with dynamically adjusting supply. Based on the traditional four-stage method of traffic prediction, the prediction ideas and methods for passenger flow demand in each scenario are proposed, then verified and analyzed with Xi′an East Station as the study case. ［Result & Conclusion］ The research results show that the passenger flow at hubs presents a development trend, where the traffic function passenger flow is dominant in the early stage, the urban function passenger flow gradually increases, and the resilient passenger flow tends to be stable in the short term. With a comprehensive analysis of the above three parts of passenger flow, the total passenger flow of Xi’an East Hub at peak hours in the long term is tentatively predicted about 30 000 to 32 000 person-times per hour. Refining the prediction method of the passenger flow demands for each part of the hub can provide a scientific and reliable basis for the functional configuration, facility layout, and passenger transportation organization for the new-type hubs.
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