城市轨道交通既有线延伸段开通初期线网客流分布预测的改进重力模型
李嘉仪张龙豪宋绪扬徐瑞华
Improved Gravity Model for Network Passenger Flow Distribution Prediction in the Initial Stage of the Existing Urban Rail Transit Extension Lines
LI JiayiZHANG LonghaoSONG XuyangXU Ruihua
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作者信息:上海市轨道交通结构耐久与系统安全重点实验室， 201804， 上海
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Affiliation:Shanghai Key Laboratory of Rail Infrastructure Durability and System Safety, 201804, Shanghai， China
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关键词:
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Key words:
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DOI:10.16037/j.1007-869x.2025.04.005
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中图分类号/CLCN:U293.13
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栏目/Col:学术专论
摘要:
［目的］城市轨道交通既有线路延伸段的开通，会影响全网客流分布。为满足延伸段开通初期的线网客流准确预测需求，有必要提出更好的模型。［方法］提出使用福莱特法收敛的改进重力模型，并选取某城市既有线延伸段开通作为案例，结合历史客流特点对模型参数进行标定，验证了模型的可行性和准确性。采用实际案例进行预测，并与改进双约束重力模型的预测结果进行对比。［结果及结论］福莱特法收敛的改进重力模型计算得到的客流分布加权平均误差为5.98人次，绝大部分预测结果误差在10人次以内，其预测精度比双约束重力模型的预测精度更高。
Abstracts:
［Objective］ The launch of extension sections for existing urban rail transit lines will affect passenger flow distribution throughout the network. It is necessary to propose a better model to meet the accurate prediction demand of network passenger flow during the initial stage of the extension section. ［Method］ An improved gravity model using the Follett method is proposed, and the opening of an existing line extension section in a city is selected as a case. The model parameters are calibrated in combination with the historical passenger flow characteristics to verify the feasibility and accuracy of the model. The actual case is used for prediction and compared with the prediction results of the improved double-constraint gravity model. ［Result & Conclusion］ The weighted average error of passenger flow distribution calculated by the improved gravity model with convergence of Follett method is 5.98 person-times, while most prediction results have an error of less than 10 person-times, which is even higher than the prediction accuracy of the double constrained gravity model.
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