基于贝叶斯网络的地铁车站楼扶梯运营系统风险评估模型
侯湘煜胡华方勇孟艳丽郝妍熙刘志钢
Risk Assessment Model for Metro Station Stair and Escalator Operation Systems Based on Bayesian Network
HOU XiangyuHU HuaFANG YongMENG YanliHAO YanxiLIU Zhigang
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作者信息:上海工程技术大学城市轨道交通学院， 201620， 上海
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Affiliation:School of Urban Railway Transportation, Shanghai University of Engineering Science, 201620, Shanghai, China
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Key words:
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DOI:10.16037/j.1007-869x.20230633
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中图分类号/CLCN:U231.4
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栏目/Col:运营管理
摘要:
［目的］楼扶梯运营系统作为地铁车站关键客流瓶颈点和风险点，具有人流密集、行人行为多样、客伤事故发生频次较高且事故危害较大等特征，因此有必要建立风险评估模型并对其风险进行评估。［方法］将楼扶梯运营系统划分为楼梯、自动扶梯两个子系统,以及缓冲、走行、离散三个组成单元，综合考虑个体、群体、设施和环境风险因素，确定评估楼扶梯运营系统风险状态的8个风险描述指标，建立风险状态方程。引入贝叶斯理论构造系统拓扑网络以解析风险状态方程。以上海轨道交通2号线静安寺站为案例，计算该站楼扶梯运营系统的事故发生概率，并进行风险因素的重要度排序。［结果及结论］行人流密度是自动扶梯缓冲单元的最大风险因素，重要度为6.49%；弱势群体比例是自动扶梯缓冲单元的第二大风险因素，重要度为4.74%；方向冲突系数是楼梯走行单元和楼梯缓冲-离散单元的最大风险因素，重要度分别达11.54%、9.42%；距上一次维修时长是自动扶梯走行单元的最大风险因素，重要度达5.02%；异常行为比例属自动扶梯走行单元的第二大风险因素，重要度为4.50%；负重人群比例是自动扶梯离散单元的最大风险因素，重要度达6.92%。
Abstracts:
［Objective］ As the critical passenger flow bottlenecks and risk points within metro station, SEO (stair and escalator operation) systems are characterized by high pedestrian density, diverse pedestrian behaviors, frequent passenger injury incidents, and significant accident consequences. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a risk assessment model for these systems and evaluate their associated risks. ［Method］ The SEO system is divided into two subsystems—stairs and escalators—and three functional units: buffering, walking, and dispersing. By comprehensively considering individual, group, facility, and environmental risk factors, eight risk description indicators are identified to assess the risk state of the SEO system, and a corresponding risk state equation is formulated. Bayesian theory is introduced to construct a system topology network for the risk state equation analysis. Taking Jing′an Temple Station on Shanghai Rail Transit Line 2 as a case study, the probability of accidents within SEO system is calculated, and the importance ranking of risk factors is determined. ［Result & Conclusion］ Pedestrian flow density is the most significant risk factor for the escalator buffering unit, with an importance of 6.49%. The proportion of vulnerable groups is the second most significant risk factor for the escalator buffering unit, with an importance of 4.74%. The directional conflict coefficient is the most significant risk factor for both the stair walking unit and the stair buffering-dispersing unit, with importance values of 11.54% and 9.42%, respectively. The time since last maintenance is the most significant risk factor for the escalator walking unit, with an importance of 5.02%, while the proportion of abnormal behavior ranks second at 4.50% in this regard. The proportion of passengers carrying heavy loads is the most significant risk factor for the escalator dispersing unit, with an importance of 6.92%.
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