Abstract: New line access will change the features of rail transit network such as connectivity, impacting passenger flow distribution of associated lines, which calls for adjustment in metro organization and management. The impact of different types of new line accessing is analyzed, and the inbound and outbound passenger flow is drawn on to represent land use change. Prediction model of inbound and outbound passenger flow is constructed through station classification and matching. On this basis, the network OD matrix is divided into regions according to the characteristics of passenger flow in each region. The corresponding passenger OD flow prediction model is constructed respectively. The access of Shenzhen Metro Line 11 is taken as practical case to show the efficacy and applicability of the model and method. Result shows that the passenger flow distribution prediction and passenger flow impact assessment after new line is accessed can help operation and management department to analyze and grasp the actual passenger flow changing situation after new line access, so that metro transportation organization scheme can be devised and optimized.