Abstract: Accurately estimating service lifespan for rail fasteners is of great significance to the efficient use of track maintenance resources and the improvement of operation and maintenance quality and efficiency. Targeting the characteristics of rail fastener in Zhengzhou Metro, based on the heterogeneity factors affecting fastener service lifespan, the rail line is divided into different types of track sections. According to the division, different fastener service lifespan estimation models are proposed and the model set for fastener lifespan estimation is formed. The model set uses a dual parameter Weibull distribution function to describe the deterioration law of fastener condition. Historical disease data of the last 5 years of Zhengzhou Metro Line 1 fastener are selected, and the maximum likelihood function is built. The estimated parameters of the model set are determined, and the proposed model set is verified. Calculation results show that the estimated rail fastener service lifespan is of great value for the site administrators to organize track operation and maintenance activities scientifically.