济南轨道交通成网初期客流时空特征分析及发展建议

Analysis of Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Passenger Flow in the Initial Stage of Network Operation and Development Recommendations for Jinan Rail Transit Network

  • 摘要:
    目的 济南轨道交通成网运营初期客流具有增长快速、波动明显、时空分布不均衡等诸多特点,为从多方面深入挖掘客流特征,需对济南轨道交通成网初期的客流时空特征进行深入研究。
    方法 以济南轨道交通2019—2024年的客流数据为研究基础,选取三线成网后2024年3月—2024年8月数据作为典型运营数据,结合时空数据统计与GIS(地理信息系统)可视化分析方法,系统探究了济南轨道交通成网初期客流的时空分布特征与动态演变规律。基于客流特征分析结果,分析了济南轨道交通线网存在的主要问题和挑战,并提出了有针对性的建议。
    结果及结论 当前济南轨道交通运营发展中存在的主要问题包括线网整体客流规模和客流强度仍然较低、线网客流的时空分布不均衡、与城市其他出行方式之间的衔接协调程度有待提升等方面。在未来发展中,济南轨道交通宜采用推进城市轨道交通客流培育、优化列车行车组织方案、强化城市轨道交通与其他交通方式整合、提高线网间各线路协调运行水平、赋能智能化运营等多种举措,以提升其运营能效及服务水平。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective Passenger flow in the initial stage of Jinan rail transit network operation is characterized by rapid growth, obvious fluctuations, and unbalanced spatiotemporal distribution. To deeply explore passenger flow characteristics from multiple aspects, it is necessary to conduct an in-depth study on the spatiotemporal characteristics of passenger flow in the initial stage of Jinan rail transit network operation.
    Method Based on the passenger flow data of Jinan Rail Transit from 2019 to 2024, the data from March to August of 2024 after the formation of a three-line network are selected as typical operation data. Combined with spatiotemporal data statistics and geographic information system (GIS) visualization analysis methods, the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and dynamic evolution patterns of passenger flow in the initial stage of Jinan rail transit network operation are systematically investigated. Based on the results of passenger flow characteristic analysis, the main problems and challenges existing in the Jinan rail transit network are analyzed, and targeted recommendations are put forward.
    Result & Conclusion At present, the main problems in the operation and development of Jinan Rail Transit include the relatively low passenger flow volume and intensity of the overall network, the unbalanced spatiotemporal distribution of the network passenger flow, and insufficient coordination and connection with other urban travel modes. In future development, Jinan Rail Transit should take multiple measures, such as promoting urban rail transit passenger flow cultivation, optimizing train operation organization schemes, strengthening the integration of urban rail transit with other transportation modes, improving the coordinated operation level of lines within the network, and empowering intelligent operation, so as to enhance its operational efficiency and service level.

     

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