网约小汽车接驳城市轨道交通的换乘意愿分析

Analysis of Transfer Willingness for Online Ride-hailing Connecting to Urban Rail Transit

  • 摘要:
    目的 为探究乘客采用网约车接驳城市轨道交通的组合出行意愿,分析其关键影响因素及作用机制,以促进两种交通方式的协同发展。
    方法 以上海市郊区新城往返市区的乘客作为研究对象,通过问卷调查获取其个人属性、出行特征及潜在心理因素的相关数据;在验证个人属性对换乘意愿无直接显著影响的基础上,构建融合结构方程与离散选择模型的ICLV(综合选择与潜变量)模型,利用测量模型将心理指标转化为潜变量,通过结构模型分析个人属性对潜变量的影响,并基于效用函数估计出行特征与潜变量对换乘意愿的总效应。
    结果及结论  结果表明,出行时段、费用差、时间差、灵活性、便利性及环保性对换乘意愿呈显著正向影响,而出行距离、舒适性与安全性则呈负向抑制。灵敏度分析进一步揭示,换乘意愿对高峰时段变化最为敏感,时间差缩短20%可带来10.7%的意愿提升,费用差增加20%可提升意愿6.1%,出行距离减少20%可提升意愿8.5%;心理变量中,便利性提升对意愿促进作用最大,舒适性与安全性提升则产生抑制作用。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To explore passengers' multimodal travel willingness combining feeder online ride-hailing and urban rail transit, key influencing factors and underlying mechanisms are analyzed to promote the synergistic development of the two transit modes.
    Method Taking passengers traveling between suburban new towns and the urban core in Shanghai as the research object, relevant data on their personal attributes, travel characteristics, and latent psychological factors are collected through a questionnaire survey. On the basis of verifying that personal attributes have no direct significant impact on transfer willingness, an ICLV (integrated choice and latent variable) model combining structural equation modeling and discrete choice modeling is constructed. The measurement model converts psychological indicators into latent variables, the structural model analyzes the effects of personal attributes on latent variables, and the total effects of travel characteristics and latent variables on transfer willingness are estimated based on utility functions.
    Result & Conclusion The results show that travel period, fare difference, time difference, flexibility, convenience, and environmental friendliness have significant positive effects on transfer willingness, while travel distance, comfort, and safety exert negative inhibitory effects. Sensitivity analysis further reveals that transfer willingness is most sensitive to changes in peak periods, with a 20% reduction in time difference leading to a 10.7% increase in willingness, a 20% increase in fare difference raising willingness by 6.1%, and a 20% decrease in travel distance enhancing willingness by 8.5%. Among psychological variables, improving convenience exerts the strongest promoting effect on transfer willingness, whereas improving comfort and safety produces an inhibitory effect.

     

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