市域(郊)铁路高架线路桥梁施工中装配式技术应用经济性分析

Economic Analysis of Applying Prefabricated Technology in Suburban Railway Elevated Bridge Construction

  • 摘要:
    目的 随着新型城镇化和都市圈建设的推进,中国市域(郊)铁路进入高速发展的“黄金期”。然而,其线路高架桥梁占比通常高达70%~80%以上,这使得桥梁工程的造价控制直接关系到整个项目的经济可行性与可持续性,控制紧迫性日益凸显。传统现浇桥梁存在施工周期长、质量可控性差、环境影响大等不足,与市域(郊)铁路“高效集约”的建设理念相矛盾。因此,有必要探讨市域(郊)铁路高架线路桥梁施工中装配式技术应用的经济性。
    方法 运用LCC(生命周期成本)理论,构建了精细化经济分析模型,将成本分解至四级科目,新增间接效益货币化量化,引入动态折现率与蒙特卡洛模拟。在此基础上,通过32 km长市域(郊)铁路工程的多场景案例进行模拟计算,对比分析装配式技术与传统现浇工法在LCC内的成本差异。
    结果及结论  案例模拟结果表明,对于长度为32 km的市域(郊)铁路项目,与采用传统现浇工法相比,采用装配式技术,虽初始投资增加10%,但通过工期缩短28.6%可带来5.18亿元的综合效益,同时50年运营维护成本可降低33%,最终可减少LCC 7.05亿元(节约率为24.6%)。多场景验证表明,在城区、郊区、特殊跨河段等不同条件下,装配式技术均保持22%~29%的LCC节约率。蒙特卡洛模拟显示其经济优势概率达99.7%,且该结论具有强稳健性。因此,在市域(郊)铁路高架线路桥梁工程中推广装配式技术,对实现工程项目的经济可行性与绿色建设理念落地具有重要实践价值。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective With the advancement of new-type urbanization and metropolitan area development, suburban railway systems in China have entered a 'golden period' of rapid expansion. However, elevated bridges typically account for more than 70% to 80% of the alignment, making the cost control of bridge engineering directly related to the economic feasibility and sustainability of the entire project, with increasing urgency. Traditional cast-in-place bridge construction has shortcomings such as long construction periods, poor controllability of quality, and significant environmental impacts, which contradict the 'efficient and intensive' construction concept of suburban railways. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the economic performance of applying prefabricated technology in the construction of elevated bridges for suburban railways.
    Method Based on LCC (life-cycle cost) theory, a refined economic analysis model is established, decomposing costs into four-level items, incorporating the monetization and quantification of indirect benefits, and introducing dynamic discount rates and Monte Carlo simulation. On this basis, simulation calculations are carried out using multi-scenario case studies of a 32 km suburban railway project, and the LCC cost differences between prefabricated technology and traditional cast-in-place methods are comparatively analyzed.
    Result & Conclusion  The case simulation results show that for a 32 km suburban railway project, compared with traditional cast-in-place methods, the adoption of prefabricated technology results in a 10% increase in initial investment, but achieves comprehensive benefits of RMB 518 million through a 28.6% reduction in construction period. Meanwhile, operation and maintenance costs over 50 years can be reduced by 33%, ultimately reducing LCC by RMB 705 million (a saving rate of 24.6%). Multi-scenario verification indicates that under different conditions such as urban areas, suburban areas, and special river-crossing sections, prefabricated technology consistently maintains an LCC savings rate of 22%-29%. Monte Carlo simulation shows that the probability of its economic advantage reaches 99.7%, and the conclusion demonstrates strong robustness. Therefore, promoting the application of prefabricated technology in suburban railway elevated bridge engineering holds significant practical value for achieving the economic feasibility of projects and implementing green construction concepts.

     

/

返回文章
返回