面向高铁站出行的低空接驳选择行为研究

Low-altitude Feeder Mode Choice Behavior for High-Speed Railway Station Travel

  • 摘要:
    目的 面对高铁站日益增长的客流量,eVTOL(电动垂直起降飞行器)作为新型低空载人出行工具,可作为高铁站接驳体系的补充与延伸。为厘清高铁站旅客选择eVTOL接驳方式的行为规律,为eVTOL运营模式设计、服务定价策略制定提供需求层面的理论支撑,有必要针对高铁站旅客eVTOL接驳选择行为开展系统性研究。
    方法 基于个人属性、出行属性构建影响因子体系,建立多项Logit(分类评定模型)离散选择模型识别影响高铁站接驳选择行为的关键变量,分析接驳选择行为的变化特征。设计包含个人属性和出行属性的调查问卷,并依此开展实证研究。在完成样本数据采集与有效性检验的基础上,基于所构建的多项Logit离散选择模型识别关键影响变量,实现对接驳选择行为特征的量化分析。
    结果及结论 与eVTOL相比,旅客更偏好现有地面交通方式(出租车或网约车、私家车、公共交通);性别与收入对旅客选择eVTOL的概率无显著影响;高铁常旅客对eVTOL的选择意愿显著更高。出行费用、行程时长、换乘时长对出行方式存在显著的负向抑制效应。在大多数出行场景中,当eVTOL定价高于100元时, eVTOL的选择概率不超过15%;但当eVTOL在时间效率与便捷程度上存在明显优势时,旅客对eVTOL高出行费用的容忍度有所上升。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective Facing the increasing passenger flow at high-speed railway stations, eVTOLs (electric vertical takeoff and landing) vehicles, as a novel low-altitude passenger transport means, can serve as a supplement and extension to the HSR (high-speed railway) station feeder system. To clarify the behavioral patterns of HSR station passengers choosing eVTOL as feeder mode, and to provide theoretical support for the design of eVTOL operation modes and the formulation of service pricing strategies from demand side, it is necessary to conduct systematic research on the eVTOL feeder choice behavior of HSR station passengers.
    Method Based on personal attributes and travel attributes, a system of influencing factors is constructed. A multinomial logit (MNL) discrete choice model is established to identify the key variables influencing HSR station feeder choice behavior and to analyze the variation characteristics of the feeder choice behavior. A questionnaire containing personal and travel attributes is designed, and empirical research is carried out accordingly. On the basis of completing sample data collection and validity testing, key influencing variables are identified based on the constructed MNL discrete choice model, achieving a quantitative analysis of the characteristics of the feeder choice behavior.
    Result & Conclusion  Compared to eVTOL, passengers prefer existing ground transportation modes (taxis or ride-hailing vehicles, private cars, public transit). Gender and income have no significant impact on the probability of passengers choosing eVTOL. Frequent HSR passengers have a significantly higher willingness to choose eVTOL. Travel cost, travel time, and transfer time have a significant negative inhibitory effect on the choice of travel mode. In most travel scenarios, when the eVTOL pricing is higher than 100 yuan, the choice probability of eVTOL does not exceed 15%; however, when eVTOL has obvious advantages in time efficiency and convenience, passengers' tolerance for the high travel costs of eVTOL increases.

     

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