面向城郊旅游出行的上海城市轨道交通接驳定制公交选择行为

Travel Choice Behavior of Customized Feeder Buses for Shanghai Urban Rail Transit Targeting Suburban Tourism Mobility

  • 摘要:
    目的 目前,在大城市中城市轨道交通网络对郊区景点的可达性有限,难以满足日益增长的城郊旅游需求。由此,可考虑将接驳城市轨道交通的定制公交作为现有城市轨道交通网络的有效补充和服务延伸。对此,有必要解析定制公交接驳城市轨道交通服务模式下的出行选择行为规律,为设计定制公交产品提供需求侧参考。
    方法 从个人基本属性、心理认知属性、旅游出行属性三个层面构建行为影响因子集,运用多项 Logit 模型和灵敏度分析方法,识别影响城郊旅游出行选择行为的关键变量,分析选择行为的变化特征。以上海临港新片区为实例,通过设计包含个人属性、旅游出行属性的问卷开展调查,收集并检验数据,进而进行模型构建与分析。
    结果及结论  旅游中同行人的类别与人数、游客对定制公交的认知程度、定制公交的等候时间和费用等变量,对定制公交的选择概率存在显著影响。灵敏度分析表明,定制公交在接驳距离达6 km以上时优势显著;单程票价不超过5元且乘客等候时间在15 min以内,对游客的吸引力较大。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective Currently, the accessibility of suburban tourist attractions via urban rail transit network in large cities is limited, making it difficult to meet the growing demands for suburban tourism. Accordingly, it can be considered that customized buses connecting with urban rail transit are used to serve as an effective complement and service extension to the existing urban rail transit network. In this regard, it is necessary to analyze travel choice behavior patterns under the customized bus connection service mode to provide demand-side references for the design of customized bus products.
    Method  A set of behavioral influencing factors is constructed from three dimensions: individual socioeconomic attributes, psychological cognitive attributes, and tourism travel attributes. A Multinomial Logit (MNL) model and sensitivity analysis are applied to identify key variables affecting suburban tourism travel choices, and analyze the characteristics of behavioral changes. Taking the Lingang New Area of Shanghai as a case study, a questionnaire survey covering individual attributes and tourism travel attributes is designed and conducted. The data is collected and verified, followed by model establishment and analysis.
    Result & Conclusion  Variables such as the type and number of travel companions, tourist awareness of customized buses, bus waiting time and fare have significant impacts on the choice probability of customized buses. Sensitivity analysis shows that customized buses have obvious advantages when the connection distance exceeds 6 km. A one-way fare no more than 5 yuan and a waiting time within 15 minutes are more attractive to tourists.

     

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