基于模糊多态贝叶斯网络的地铁运营风险评估方法*
曾明华1王旭2王转敏3王敏4
Risk Assessment of Subway Operation Safety Based on Fuzzy Polymorphic Bayesian Network
ZENG MinghuaWANG XuWANG ZhuanminWANG Min
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作者信息:1.华东交通大学交通运输与物流学院，330013，南昌；
2.中国铁路兰州局集团有限公司兰州车务段,730050,兰州;
3.兰州市轨道交通有限公司，730030，兰州;
4.合肥城市轨道交通有限公司,230001,合肥
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Affiliation:School of Transportation and Logistics, East China Jiaotong University, 330013,Nanchang, China
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关键词:
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Key words:
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DOI:10.16037/j.1007-869x.2019.05.006
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中图分类号/CLCN:F530.7
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栏目/Col:学术专论
摘要:
从安全管理、人、设备设施和环境等4个方面确定18个地铁运营安全影响因素。采用解释结构模型分析影响因素之间的关系，构建结构模型，并将其转换为多态贝叶斯网络结构。同时，引入模糊集理论，将专家给出的自然语言变量转化为概率信息，输入到多态贝叶斯网络并进行风险评估。案例研究说明，该风险评估方法应用于地铁运营安全分析中切实可行。
Abstracts:
Eighteen factors that influence subway operation safety are determined from four aspects, including management, human, equipment and environment. An interpretative structural model (ISM) is used to analyze the relationships between influencing factors and to form a structural model, which is then converted to the polymorphic Bayesian network structure. At the same time, fuzzy set theory is introduced to translate the natural language variables given by experts into probabilistic information and then input them into the polymorphic Bayesian network for risk assessment. Case studies show that the application of this risk assessment in the analysis of metro operation safety is feasible.
引文 / Ref:
曾明华,王旭,王转敏,等.基于模糊多态贝叶斯网络的地铁运营风险评估方法[J].城市轨道交通研究,2019,22(05):28.
ZENG Minghua，WANG Xu，WANG Zhuanmin，et al.Risk Assessment of Subway Operation Safety Based on Fuzzy Polymorphic Bayesian Network[J].Urban Mass Transit，2019，22(05)：28.
ZENG Minghua，WANG Xu，WANG Zhuanmin，et al.Risk Assessment of Subway Operation Safety Based on Fuzzy Polymorphic Bayesian Network[J].Urban Mass Transit，2019，22(05)：28.
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