基于月客流量残差的地铁客流季节指数预测方法
鲁文博马超群李国栋曹蕊徐金华
Seasonal Index Forecast Method of Metro Passenger Flow Based on Monthly Passenger Flow Residual
LU WenboMA ChaoqunLI GuodongCAO RuiXU Jinhua
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作者信息:长安大学交通运输工程学院，710064，西安
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Affiliation:College of Transportation Engineering, Chang′an University, 710064, Xi′an China
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关键词:
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Key words:
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DOI:10.16037/j.1007-869x.2021.09.018
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中图分类号/CLCN:U293.13
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栏目/Col:研究报告
摘要:
为精准反映城市轨道交通的季节性特征，基于月客流残差提出了地铁客流季节区间分类方法。建立趋势方程并计算月客流残差，以月客流残差曲线之间的相似度为基础对月份进行分类，得出基于月客流残差曲线的季节分组区间(SIR)。分别以每月进行分类并计算传统月份分组区间(TMC)、以每季度进行分类并计算传统季度分组区间(TQC)以及SIR区间的季节指数并进行预测。预测结果表明,提出的分类方法在相对误差、平均绝对百分比误差、均方根误差三方面都比其他分类方法更小。这说明所提出的分类方法在地铁客流预测中具有更好的适应性，从而可以为地铁运能运力调整以及运营计划的制定提供参考依据。
Abstracts:
To accurately reflect the seasonal characteristics of urban rail transit, the seasonal interval classification method of metro passenger flow is proposed based on the change of monthly passenger flow residual. The trend equation is established and the monthly passenger flow residual is calculated. The monthly classification is based on the similarity between the monthly residual curves, and the SIR (seasonal grouping interval) based on the residual curve is obtained. TMC (traditional month grouping interval) that is classified by month, TQC (traditional quarter grouping interval) and the seasonal index of SIR interval that are classified and calculated by quarter are predicted respectively. The prediction result shows that the proposed classification method is smaller in relative error, mean absolute percentage error, and root mean square error than other classification methods, indicating that the proposed classification method has better adaptability in the short-term forecast of metro passenger flow, providing reference for the adjustment of metro transportation capacity and the formulation of operation plan.
引文 / Ref:
鲁文博，马超群，李国栋，等.基于月客流量残差的地铁客流季节指数预测方法[J].城市轨道交通研究，2021，24(9):77.
LU Wenbo，MA Chaoqun，LI Guodong，et al.Seasonal index forecast method of metro passenger flow based on monthly passenger flow residual[J].Urban Mass Transit，2021，24(9)：77.
LU Wenbo，MA Chaoqun，LI Guodong，et al.Seasonal index forecast method of metro passenger flow based on monthly passenger flow residual[J].Urban Mass Transit，2021，24(9)：77.
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