基于fsQCA(模糊集定性比较分析)的城市轨道交通运营安全风险研究
李颖薇冯套柱
Study on Urban Rail Transit Operational Safety Risks Based on fsQCA
LI YingweiFENG Taozhu
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作者信息:西安科技大学管理学院， 710054， 西安
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Affiliation:College of Management, Xi’an University of Science and Technology, 710054, Xi’an, China
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关键词:
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Key words:
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DOI:10.16037/j.1007-869x.2023.08.034
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中图分类号/CLCN:F530.7
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栏目/Col:研究报告
摘要:
目的：为有效预防人为、设备、管理及环境因素引发的城市轨道交通运营事故，需分析城市轨道交通运营安全的风险，以提升管理水平。方法：选取2003—2021年30起国内外城市轨道交通运营典型事故案例，运用模糊集定性比较分析法，探究城市轨道交通运营事故的致因路径及核心条件。对分析得到的6种条件组态进行归纳，总结了安全意识淡薄型、车辆系统故障型、监督管理匮乏型和外部环境恶劣型4种事故类型。结果及结论：员工行为等6个前因变量均不是事故发生的必要条件。事故的核心条件分别为员工不安全行为、车辆系统故障、安全管理不到位和外部环境不良。若要预防安全意识淡薄型事故的发生，就需要加强员工安全意识和提升职业技能；针对车辆系统故障型事故，可对车辆进行定期检修、建立维修数据库；对于监督管理匮乏型事故，建立健全安全运营管理体系、严格落实安全监督检查制度具有重要作用；若要阻断外部环境恶劣型事故，就要完善应急处置预案,全面提升城市轨道交通的应急处置能力。
Abstracts:
Objective: To effectively prevent URT (urban rail transit) operation accidents caused by human, equipment, management and environmental factors, it is necessary to analyze URT operational safety risks and improve management levels. Method: Selecting 30 typical URT operation accident cases in China and abroad from 2003 to 2021, the fsQCA (fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis) method is employed to explore the causal pathways and core conditions of URT operation accidents. Based on six types of configuration conditions obtained from analysis, weak safety awareness, vehicle system failures, inadequate supervision and management, and adverse external environment four types of accident scenarios are summarized. Result & Conclusion: None of the six antecedent variables, including employee behavior, are necessary conditions to cause accidents. The core conditions of accidents are identified as unsafe employee behaviors, vehicle system failures, inadequate safety management, and adverse external environment. To prevent accidents related to weak safety awareness, it is necessary to strengthen employee safety awareness and enhance professional skills. For accidents related to vehicle system failures, it is recommended to carry out regular maintenance and establish vehicle maintenance database. Addressing accidents caused by inadequate supervision and management system, it is crucial to build wellformed safety operationmanagement system and strictly implement safety supervision and inspection mechanisms. To block accidents caused by adverse external environment, it is important to improve emergency response plans and enhance the emergency response capabilities of URT comprehensively.
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