城市轨道交通运营安全的风险耦合特性
施挺
Coupling Characteristics of Operational Safety Risks in Urban Rail Transit
SHI Ting
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作者信息:上海申通地铁集团有限公司安全生产监督管理部，201100，上海
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Affiliation:Safety Production Supervision and Management Department, Shanghai Shentong Metro Group Co., Ltd., 201100, Shanghai, China
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关键词:
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Key words:
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DOI:10.16037/j.1007-869x.2024.11.005
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中图分类号/CLCN:F530.7
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栏目/Col:研究报告
摘要:
［目的］城市轨道交通系统是一个复杂的人、机、环、管综合系统，其运营风险不是独立、静止存在的。研究各风险之间发生的动态耦合效应，能更有效地做出合理的风险管控，从而降低事故发生的概率与危害后果。［方法］系统性地分析了城市轨道交通运营风险因素来源，对人为、设备、环境、管理等4类风险因素进行了同质风险耦合分析与异质风险耦合分析，总结风险耦合演变规律。基于N-K(系统风险因素数量-参与耦合风险因素数量)模型量化计算人为、设备、环境、管理等4类风险因素不同组合形式的耦合值。［结果及结论］通过对多因素组合的耦合值计算分析可得：参与耦合的风险因素越多，风险越大。在双因素耦合中，设备在风险耦合中影响程度最高，人为-设备耦合的风险值最高；在三因素耦合中，设备风险同样易与其他因素发生耦合效应。研究结果能反映城市轨道交通系统运营风险的动态特征及相互作用关系，有助于企业安全管理部门建立针对性风险应对策略及管控方案。
Abstracts:
［Objective］ Urban rail transit system is a complex integrated system involving people, machine, environment, and management, with its operational risks existing not independently or statically. Understanding the dynamic coupling effects between various risks can lead to more effective risk control, thereby reducing the probability and hazardous impact of accidents. ［Method］ Based on a systematic analysis of the risk factor sources in urban rail transit operations, both homogenous and heterogeneous risk coupling analyses for four categories of risk factors: human, equipment, environment, and management are conducted. The evolution patterns of risk coupling are summarized. Using the N-K (number of system risk factors-number of coupling factors) model, the coupling values for different combinations of the aforementioned four risk factors are quantified. ［Result & Conclusion］ Analysis of coupling value calculation for various factor combinations reveals that the more risk factors involved in coupling, the greater the risk. In dual-factor coupling, equipment has the highest impact on risk coupling, with the highest risk value in human-equipment coupling. In triple-factor coupling, equipment risks also exhibit a strong tendency to couple with other factors. Research results reflect the dynamic characteristics and the interactions of operational risks in urban rail transit system, providing valuable insights for enterprise safety management departments to develop targeted risk response strategies and management solutions.
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